Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
