Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
